What display of Stock Watch?

Red Light

Michael Crabtree, WR, Niners (ADP: 45.14): He hit the ground running in the middle of 2009, an amazing thing for a rookie receiver with little experience. We want to love him, we really do. But can we be sure that Crabtree will emerge as the main target in this passing game, given that Vernon Davis will demand a ton of targets as well? And how sold is anyone on Vernon Smith?

In the right situation, Crabtree could be a Top 15 or even Top 10 receiver right this second. Alas, San Francisco isn't that place. Crabtree might have a breakout second season anyway, but the possible breakout is already priced in as a sure thing. Don't pay for it.

Chad Ocho Cinco, WR, wholesale Bengals jersey (ADP: 46.86): When two receivers converge on the same team, you always want the No. 2 guy if he's significantly discounted. In this case, that's Terrell Owens, the guy with something to prove and the guy who's gobbling up Carson Palmer aerials left and right this summer. Ocho Cinco still might wind up begin the top receiver in Cincinnati, but there's no way he'll be the best value.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants (ADP: 52.38): This one is such a slam-dunk, we're not going to get wordy. You can get Ahmad Bradshaw 2-3 rounds later, and even if the prices were even, we'd still take Bradshaw, the younger, faster, and tougher back.
Green Light

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts (ADP: 48.61): There's nothing exciting about him - he's not a home-run hitter, he's not a highlight-film type of guy. But the Colts love him for his ball security, blocking skills and receiving acumen, and that's also why Donald Brown can't seem to get into the game. Every week the Indy offense faces an opposing defense
hell-bent on stopping cheap Peyton Manning jersey and friends - and that's why Addai can be so valuable even without one jaw-dropping skill.

Steve Smith, WR, Giants (ADP: 39.63): He's just a hair in front of the other Steve Smith, but in our eyes the right play is the New York man all the way. Smith's gigantic breakout year wasn't built on big plays or flukes, but rather sound route-running and a tremendous rapport with Eli Manning. Those are the type of skills that you can count on
showing up, year-in and year-out. Said another way, we like the continuity here, and when in doubt, ride with the receiver who gets the third-down targets.

Yellow Light

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos jersey (ADP 36.05): He's sidelined with a hamstring injury right now and it's certainly factored into the price. Here's the upside: we're talking about a first-round pedigree and someone who has no major competition behind him on the roster. You could see Josh McDaniels and Kyle Orton trusting Moreno more as 2009
went along; the additional reliance in the passing game tells you that.  In some groups Moreno will even slip out of the top four rounds because owners hate taking chances with their early picks. We understand that theme, but sometimes you have to toss the dice and let the upside come out with a pick that could win you your league. There's a lot of room for profit here.

Greg Jennings, WR,cheap Packers jersey (ADP: 27.62): We were hoping to get a discount off his disappointing 2009 season, and sadly that hasn't happened. But Jennings is still the top downfield threat on a loaded Green Bay offense, and we love how the ball pretty much hasn't hit the ground in their early practices and exhibitions. Aaron Rodgers might be a good sleeper pick for league MVP right now, and Jennings will come around for the ride. And while you're at it, see if you can land tight end Jermichael Finley in Round 5 or 6 - again, the cost isn't cheap, but we still see profit likely.